8.5 C
Houston
Monday, November 30, 2020

Pennsylvania polls tighten, and Trump is now within 4 points of a second term

President Trump has nearly halved his deficit in Pennsylvania and now trails in that state by only 3.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average. That means that he only trails by about 3.8 percentage points in the race for the White House.

Trump is closer in the polls today than he was four years ago at this same point.

If Trump has a late surge of 2 points in swing states, and he outperforms the polls by 2 points in the swing states, he will win the right to stay in the White House.

Start with Pennsylvania, since that’s the state most likely to become the tipping point. Trump trailed Biden by 7.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average on Oct. 12. Since then, Biden’s been below 50% in 3 out of 4 polls, and Trump has been at 45% or above in all three. For instance, look at the Reuters/Ipsos polls; compared to a week ago, Trump’s deficit has been reduced from 7 points to 4 points.

Then, there is a handful of swing states closer than Pennsylvania, where Trump is tied or trailing by less than 3.8 points. In Arizona, Biden’s up by 3.1 points. In North Carolina, Biden’s up by 2 points. In Iowa, Biden’s up by 1.2 points. In Florida, Biden’s up by 1 point. In Georgia, Biden’s up by less than 1 point. (We’ll return later to the amazing fact that Biden is leading in a poll of Georgia.)

If Trump were to outperform today’s polls by 4 points, he’d carry all those states. If he carries the states where he’s leading plus these states where he’s within 4 points (Georgia, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania), Trump wins with at least 278 electoral votes (he needs 270).

So, how likely is a 4-point outperformance of today’s polls? Again, those 4 points could come from a polling error or a late surge or a combination of both. Four years ago in Pennsylvania, Trump outperformed the final polls in Pennsylvania by 2.8 points. If that happened again this year, Trump would still fall a bit short, but he has time to make up the ground.

Four years ago today (that is, two weeks prior to Election Day), Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by 5.2 points in the Pennsylvania RealClearPolitics average. That means his climb that year was steeper (36% steeper, to be precise) greater than his needed climb this year.

Pollsters claim to have learned from their errors four years ago. If they have, then we might be looking at a Biden blowout of historic proportions — imagine Georgia and Texas and Ohio all going blue.

But we’d be foolish to write off Trump when he only needs to close a 4-point gap.



Read More at Washingtonexaminer

Latest news

Norway Criminalizes Hate Speech Against Transgender People… In Private Homes Or Conversations

Authored by Jonathan Turley,We have previously discussed the alarming rollback on free speech rights in the West, particularly in Europe. The move to criminalize speech...

‘Surge Upon a Surge’ of COVID-19 Possible in Coming Weeks

A top government infectious disease expert said Sunday he sees the possibility of a third and even fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. “We may...

Netanyahu Threatens to Reimpose Virus Restrictions Weeks After Second Lockdown

JERUSALEM, Israel – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday threatened to stop easing the government’s virus restrictions and suggested reimposing harsher measures as...

Judge Reapproves Emergency Order Blocking Georgia From Wiping or Resetting Voting Machines

The federal judge overseeing high profile attorney Sidney Powell’s election lawsuit in Georgia issued a temporary restraining order late Sunday night, declaring that election...

Related news

Israel must speak to Biden with a clear voice on future Iran negotiations

With President-elect Joe Biden's victory, the United States is widely expected to re-enter...

‘Diverse Perspectives’: Biden, Harris Unveil All-Women Communications Team

Jen Psaki, seen here during her stint as White House communications director in 2015, has been named as White House press secretary in a...

Iran Vows to Avenge Nuclear Scientist’s Killing, Deplored by Bernie Sanders, Ex-CIA Chief Brennan

Iranian judiciary chief Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi and others with the body of slain nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. (Photo by Mizan News Agency/AFP via Getty...

One-touch payments remain infuriatingly absent in America

’Tis the season for shopping. If you are fortunate enough to have kept your job through the pandemic-caused economic lockdowns, dropping dollars in person...

This election only reinforced the value of the Electoral College

One must read to the end of The Washington Post’s recent editorial headlined “Abolish the Electoral College,” before hitting on the real reason the...

Shame on politicians who’ve fed anti-vax hysteria amid a pandemic

A Siena poll shows that nearly a quarter of New Yorkers say they “probably won’t” or “definitely won’t” get an FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine. Blame...

‘Buy local’ is just nonsense and other commentary

Econ desk: ‘Buy Local’ Is Just Nonsense The holiday-shopping injunction to “buy local or buy from small businesses . . . is pure nonsense,” opines...